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Verification on forecasts of tropical cyclone over Western north Pacific in 2012 (in Chinese)

modify : 2016-11-08 09:26:01 hits: 1216

Abstract: Operational positioning, track and intensity forecast error of tropical cyclones (TCs) over western North Pacific in 2012 are evaluated. The results show that the performance of TC positioning remains the same as that in the previous years, with an average error in all methods is 23.4km. The average track forecast errors of domestic subjective methods are 94.3km (24h), 168.2km (48h) and 284.2km (72h). Compared with 2011, the performance of 24h track forecast has made great progress in 2012 for CMA. The average track forecast errors of global models are 96.8km (24h), 177.2km (48h), 283.6km (72h), 425.7km(96h) and 583.6km (120h). The performances of some numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are approaching to the mean level of subjective forecasts, but the best subjective method still having the positive skill who compared with any NWP method. In addition, though comparing track error with foreign advanced models, the track forecast ability of domestic regional NWPs still has a large gap . The average absolute intensity error of four official subjective methods at 24h, 48h and 72h are 4.11~4.63m/s, 6.10~6.90m/s and 6.84~8.71m/s, respectively. There is always a systematic bias exists in some objective intensity forecast methods. Each method has predicted successfully for the 24h landfall location of “Haikui”, but faultily for “Saola”.


Chen G. M., H. Yu, and Q. Cao, 2013: Verification on forecasts of tropical cyclone over Western north Pacific in 2012. Met. Mon., 2013(10), 1350-1358. (in Chinese)


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