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Analysis and comparison of forecasting of a heavy rainfall event in Shanghai under twin typhoon situation (in Chinese)

modify : 2016-11-08 13:55:37 hits: 903

Abstract: After a careful study on causes of a heavy rainfall event in Shanghai under a situation of twin typhoons,it is found that the location of this event is different from the so-called three traditional rainfall locations for this type of situation,namely the typhoon core area,typhoon inversed-trough area and area combined with cold air.This heavy rainfall is caused by convergence of northerly flow from one typhoon’s left side and moist air from another typhoon’s inversed trough,which is called the fourth type of rainfall location in this paper.All operational numerical models fail to forecast this event correctly for their imperfect performance in describing each typhoon’s location,intensity and structure.Because model’s displacement output is very difficult for forecasters to revise and interpret,along with a very low occurrence probability,it is extremely difficult to forecast this kind of heavy rainfall(with lead time longer than 24 hours).As for nowcasting,convergent lines appearing before the torrential rainfall are a key factor to focus on.

Qi L. B., X. G. Cao, 2013:  Analysis and comparison of forecasting of a heavy rainfall event in Shanghai under twin typhoon situation. J. of Trop. Met. 29(2), 177-188.

 

 
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